BOSTON– A team of international researchers has developed the first individualized risk prediction model for adults diagnosed with early-stage classic Hodgkin’s lymphoma. The model, known as the Early-stage Hodgkin International Prognostication Index (E-HIPI), estimates a patient’s two-year progression-free survival and is expected to significantly refine treatment strategies for the disease.
The collaborative effort includes scientists from RWJBarnabas Health, Rutgers Cancer Institute of New Jersey, Tufts Medical Center in Boston, and The University of Manchester in the UK. The findings were published Thursday in NEJM Evidence and presented at the 18th International Conference on Malignant Lymphoma (ICML), a major international forum for lymphoma research.
“Although early-stage Hodgkin’s lymphoma is considered highly curable, we have lacked a robust tool to predict relapse risk at an individual level,” said Dr. Andrew M. Evens, the study’s co-lead author and Deputy Director for Clinical Services at Rutgers Cancer Institute. “E-HIPI fills this gap by using common clinical data to produce precise risk estimates, helping doctors and patients make more informed treatment decisions.”
The model was developed from clinical trial data involving more than 3,000 adult patients and validated in two separate real-world patient cohorts totaling over 2,300 individuals. It incorporates easily obtainable measures—such as tumor size, hemoglobin and albumin levels, and patient sex—to predict the likelihood of remaining cancer-free two years after diagnosis.
Compared to traditional classification systems like the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) criteria, the E-HIPI model showed superior performance. The research team has also launched an interactive online calculator, freely available to clinicians and patients, to aid in treatment planning and risk discussion.
“This tool is not only more accurate than previous systems—it’s accessible, user-friendly, and designed to support collaborative decision-making,” said Dr. Angie Mae Rodday, lead statistician for the study and investigator at Tufts Medical Center.
The study emerged from the HoLISTIC (Hodgkin Lymphoma International Study for Individual Care) Consortium, which integrates clinical trial and registry data from across the globe. The same team previously developed a similar tool for advanced-stage Hodgkin’s lymphoma, known as A-HIPI.
Dr. Susan Parsons, medical director of the Adolescent and Young Adult Cancer Survivorship Program at Tufts, said the new model has the potential to help patients better understand both the immediate and long-term implications of treatment. “We hope this approach helps reduce uncertainty during what is often a deeply stressful time,” she said.
Contributors also included John Radford, Professor of Medical Oncology at The University of Manchester, who emphasized the importance of international cooperation in making the model a reality. “This work demonstrates the value of global collaboration in creating practical tools that can improve outcomes and quality of life for patients worldwide.”
Further development is underway to refine the model by incorporating specific treatment regimens and predicting long-term side effects, with the goal of continuing to advance personalized care in Hodgkin’s lymphoma.
The online risk calculator is now live, providing oncologists and patients with a new way to engage in evidence-based treatment planning for early-stage Hodgkin’s lymphoma.
