ST. LOUIS, Missouri — Reinsurance Group of America, Incorporated (RGA), a global life and health reinsurer, has released new research indicating that anti-obesity medications and diabetes treatments based on incretin pathways, including GLP-1 drugs, could meaningfully reduce mortality rates across several countries over the next 20 years. The findings are detailed in RGA’s new report, “Weighing the Evidence: A quantification of the mortality and morbidity impacts of GLP-1 and other incretin-based drugs in the US, UK, Canada, and Hong Kong populations.”
According to the analysis, use of these therapies could reduce mortality in the United States by 3.5% by 2045 under a central scenario. Under optimistic assumptions, the reduction could reach 8.8%, while a pessimistic case projects a 1.0% decrease. The research also projects mortality improvements in the United Kingdom (2.0%), Canada (2.6%), and Hong Kong (1.4%) under comparable central-case assumptions.
The study found that mortality improvements are likely to vary by age group. Individuals between ages 45 and 59 are expected to benefit the most. The smallest reductions are anticipated among those aged 85 and older.
The report also highlights possible reductions in disease incidence, though improvements in cancer rates are projected to be more modest. Insured populations and annuitants are expected to experience smaller gains compared to the general population, due in part to lower average BMI levels within those groups.
“We believe that anti-obesity medications will have a meaningful benefit on general population-level mortality. This will differ by geography, largely reflecting the obesity profiles of different markets, and by age, sex, and access to medicines,” said Tony Cheng, President and CEO of RGA. “For insured groups, we tend to observe a lower average BMI, which is likely to translate to a smaller overall mortality impact compared to the general population.”
Cost remains a barrier for many patients, but RGA notes that increased competition, generic versions, and new oral formulations could expand access. The next wave of incretin-based drugs is being developed to further support weight loss and diabetes management, and they are also being studied for broader medical uses, including neurological conditions and behavioral health.
“This is a fast-moving space with significant uncertainty, but the potential of these drugs is exciting,” Cheng said. “As the list of approved indications continues to expand, and adoption rises among those with existing illnesses, these therapies hold the potential to deliver a substantial positive impact on public health.”
